International Cricket Council
Sri Lanka are still in the hunt for the semi-finals

What your team needs to do to reach the semi-finals

With the race for the semi-finals heating up, we look at what all 12 teams need to do to book their spots in the pointy end of the tournament, with the help of the FTX Bracket Challenge.

Standings | Highlights

With 12 matches to go across the two Super 12 groups, we have all but confirmed our first semi-finalist in the ICC Men’s T20 World Cup 2021.

England virtually locked down their spot in the final four by defeating Sri Lanka on Monday in Sharjah, moving to a perfect eight points from four Group 1 matches.

With the race for the semi-finals heating up, we look at what all 12 teams need to do to book their spots in the pointy end of the tournament.

Try and work out the finalists for yourself with the FTX Bracket Challenge.

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GROUP 1

Minimum points to reach semi-finals: Four points

Maximum points needed to reach semi-finals: 10 points

ENGLAND

First – Eight points – four matches - NRR of 3.183
Remaining opponents: South Africa

What they need to do to reach the semi-finals: They’re basically there

England have all but locked down their spot in the final four with eight points from four games.

While both Australia and South Africa can still join England on eight points, not only would they each have to win their remaining games – for the Proteas that includes a match against England – they would need to win significantly enough to overturn England’s massive NRR lead.

A victory over South Africa in their final group game would take NRR out of the equation and cement their already stone-tight grip on top spot.

In short: They’re virtually already into the semi-finals.

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MT20WC_2021_MATCH29_ENGvSL_ENG_BUTTLER_BATTING_HIGHLIGHTS

SOUTH AFRICA

Second – Four points – three games – NRR of 0.210
Remaining opponents:  Bangladesh, England
What they need to reach the semi-finals: Win and hope

South Africa have bounced back well since their opening defeat against Australia but their fate is still not in their own hands.

The Proteas could theoretically lose both their remaining matches and still make the semi-finals but it would take a perfect set of results in every other group game for that to happen and would leave them at risk of being knocked out on NRR – they are only second to England on NRR currently in their group.

Conversely, they could win both their remaining games and still not make the next stage with the possibility of all three of England, Australia and themselves finishing on eight points.

If they only win one of their remaining matches, they’ll need Australia to drop points in at least one match and preferably for that loss to come against the West Indies rather than Bangladesh.

In short: Winning both matches should see them through, winning one match might see them through, winning no matches will likely see them exit the tournament.

Video cwc19 30 Oct 21
Match Highlights: South Africa v Sri Lanka

AUSTRALIA

Third – Four points – three matches – NRR of -0.627
Remaining opponents: Bangladesh, West Indies
What they need to reach the semi-finals: Win and hope

Australia were firmly on course for the semi-finals until a big defeat against England neutered their NRR, leaving their fate in the hands of others.

Behind South Africa on NRR, their road to the final is identical to the Proteas’ in everything but opponents.

Given they have already played world No.1s England, their final two fixtures are easier on paper than South Africa’s. Conversely, they still must play defending champions West Indies, who themselves could be chasing a semi-final spot when the sides meet on Saturday.

In short: Winning both matches should see them through, winning one match might see them through, winning no matches will likely see them exit the tournament.

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SRI LANKA

Fourth – Two points – four matches – NRR of -0.590
Remaining opponents: West Indies
What they need to do: Win and pray

With just one match to go in their Super 12 campaign, Sri Lanka can finish on a maximum of four points.

That could still see them going through to the semi-finals but they’ll need a miraculous set of results.

Outside of beating West Indies themselves, they would need the following results:

  • Bangladesh beat South Africa and Australia
  • West Indies beat Australia
  • England beat South Africa

With those results, they would still need a serious upswing in their NRR and a drop off for their competition’s.

A loss ends their hopes entirely.

In short: Sri Lanka’s hopes look very slim but there is a world in which they make the semi-finals.

Video cwc19 24 Oct 21
Match Highlights: Sri Lanka v Bangladesh

WEST INDIES

Fifth – Two points – three games – NRR of -1.598
Remaining opponents: Sri Lanka, Australia
What they need to do: Win and pray

Defending champions West Indies’ campaign got off to the roughest of starts against England, with their NRR decimated after being bowled out for 55. Their hopes were hurt further in an eight-wicket defeat against South Africa before they revived their campaign with a three-run win over Bangladesh.

Their chances of reaching the next stage look very slim but they aren’t out of the race yet.

If they can collect four points from their remaining two matches, they will not only bolster their chances but hurt fellow contenders Australia’s, ensuring Aaron Finch’s team finish on a maximum of six points.

If South Africa also drop points in one of their two remaining games – Bangladesh, England – then all three of the sides could finish on six points bringing NRR into the equation. As things stand, West Indies are at the back of the line for NRR, so they would need things to change significantly here.

While the West Indies could make it through to the semi-finals on four points in theory, a loss to Australia would definitely end their tournament.

In short: If they win both matches they have a slim chance of making it. If they win one match they have almost no chance of making it. If they lose both matches or just lose to Australia then they are out.

Video Men's T20 World Cup 2021 29 Oct 21
Match highlights: West Indies v Bangladesh

BANGLADESH

Sixth – zero points – three matches – NRR of -1.069
Remaining opponents: South Africa, Australia
What they need to do: Win and pray

Things look grim for Bangladesh, who have zero points from their three games so far.

Like Sri Lanka, they need the magical five-teams-on-four points scenario to come to fruition. For them, this means winning both their remaining games against Australia and South Africa and for the following results:

  • Sri Lanka beat West Indies
  • West Indies beat Australia
  • England beat South Africa

With their NRR currently very unhealthy, they still require a major shake-up of things here.

In short: They need to win both their games and hope for something miraculous.

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GROUP 2

Minimum points to reach semi-finals: Four points

Maximum points required to reach semi-finals: 10 points

PAKISTAN

First – Six points – Three games – NRR of 0.638
Remaining opponents: Namibia, Scotland
What they need to do: One win should be enough

Alongside England, Pakistan have looked like the team to beat at this tournament, beating India by 10 wickets before impressive wins over New Zealand and Afghanistan.

Victory in their next game against Namibia would lock in their spot in the semi-finals, while a loss to Namibia followed by a victory over Scotland would still almost certainly be enough. It would take the stars to align cruelly for a win not to be enough for Pakistan to progress.

They’ll need to win both to guarantee a first-place finish to avoid a likely semi-final against world No.1 England.

In short: One more win almost certainly gets the job done.

Video cwc19 29 Oct 21
Match highlights: Pakistan v Afghanistan

AFGHANISTAN

Second – Four points – three games – NRR of 3.097
Remaining opponents: India, New Zealand
What they need to do: Winning their remaining matches should be enough

Afghanistan have their fate in their own hands after convincing wins over Scotland and Namibia on either side of a tough defeat to Pakistan, leaving them with the healthiest NRR of the group.

They can almost certainly lock down their spot in the semi-finals by winning each of their last two games, but that won’t be easy with matches against India and New Zealand to come.

The only unknown here is the prospect of Namibia winning all of their remaining matches to open the possibility of a three-way tie on eight points at the top of the table with themselves, Afghanistan and Pakistan. NRR should hold Afghanistan in good stead if that happens.

Given the health of their NRR, a win over New Zealand would likely be enough on its own for Afghanistan unless India can register seismic wins in each of their last three matches or Namibia go on the prior mentioned winning run.

If they fail to beat New Zealand but beat India they will require the Black Caps to lose to either Scotland or Namibia – they would also be at risk of being leapfrogged by either Scotland or Namibia.

If they lose both their remaining matches, Afghanistan will almost certainly bow out of the tournament with an improbable list of results needed to see them through.

Afghanistan’s path to the semi-finals will become clearer after Pakistan’s match against Namibia on Tuesday.

In short: Victory over New Zealand should be enough

Video Match Highlights 31 Oct 21
Match Highlights: Afghanistan v Namibia

NEW ZEALAND

Third – Two points – two games – NRR of 0.765
Remaining opponents: Scotland, Afghanistan, Namibia
What they need to do: Win their remaining matches

On paper, New Zealand have got their two toughest games out of the way, suffering a loss to Pakistan before winning comfortably against India. That has them firmly on course for the semi-finals.

If they win their remaining three matches they will be guaranteed a spot in the next stage.

A loss to Afghanistan would likely see them bow out of the tournament given the Asian nation’s super NRR.

A victory over Afghanistan paired with losses to either or both of Scotland and Namibia would see them relying on other results.

In short: Winning their next three matches locks them in, winning two out of three is likely to be enough as long as one win is against Afghanistan

Video cwc19 31 Oct 21
Match Highlights: India v New Zealand

NAMIBIA

Fourth – Two points – Two games – NRR of -1.287
Remaining opponents: Pakistan, New Zealand, India
What they need to do: Win their remaining matches and hope

Having registered a famous win over Scotland in their first ever Super 12 match, Namibia are still in control of their own fate despite a chastening defeat to Afghanistan.

If they win all three of their remaining matches, they will have one foot in the semi-finals. Of course, that won’t be easy given their next three opponents are Pakistan, New Zealand and India.

There is a world in which they finish on eight points but still go out on NRR behind Pakistan and Afghanistan.

A loss in any match from here will leave them relying on other results, with two defeats almost definitely knocking them out, and three certainly.

In short: They’re on track but said track is rough.

Video ICC Men's T20 World Cup 2021 27 Oct 21
Match Highlights: Scotland v Namibia

INDIA

Fifth – Zero points – two games – NRR of -1.609
Remaining opponents: Afghanistan, Scotland, Namibia
What they need to do: Win and hope

Among the pre-tournament favourites, India find themselves on the brink of elimination after just two matches following heavy defeats against Pakistan and New Zealand.

Their likeliest road to the semi-finals is registering big wins over each of their next three opponents while hoping Afghanistan beat New Zealand by the barest of margins so they can catch up on NRR.

A loss in their next game would end their hopes, with both Pakistan and Afghanistan uncatchable on six points.

Any loss leaves them relying heavily on other results going their way even more than they already are.

In short: India’s prospects look grim and they’ll need a favour from Afghanistan against New Zealand.

Video ICC Men's T20 World Cup 2021 31 Oct 21
Bumrah with the first wicket for India

SCOTLAND

Sixth – Zero points – Two games – NRR of  -3.562
Remaining opponents: New Zealand, India, Pakistan
What they need to do: Win and hope

A heavy first-up defeat against Afghanistan before a loss to Namibia has left Scotland with slim chance of progressing but they are mathematically alive.

If they can win their next three games – a big ‘if’ since those games are against New Zealand, India and Pakistan – they will have six points to their name, which could be enough.

They would need a plethora of results elsewhere to go their way, with a single win to Afghanistan or two to either Namibia or New Zealand likely to end their hopes given their weak NRR.

In short: They need something incredible to happen

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