State of Play in Group 1: Australia’s World Cup future lies in England and Sri Lanka’s hands
Tournament hosts and defending champions Australia face the prospect of an early exit unless Sri Lanka beat England on Saturday. But one team is already through to the final four.
We take a look at the state of play in Group 1 with one game left to play.
Who’s through to the semi-finals?
New Zealand are qualified for the semi-finals thanks to their win over Ireland on Friday.
That result took the Black Caps up to seven points and with a vastly superior Net RR over Australia, who are also on seven points.
Only England can now knock them off top spot with a huge margin of victory against Sri Lanka, but in that improbable circumstance the Kiwis would still go through as group runners-up.
All eyes on England and Sri Lanka
The meeting between England and Sri Lanka in Sydney on Saturday will decide who joins New Zealand in the final four from Group 1.
The Sri Lankans would have been praying for Rashid Khan to get Afghanistan over the line in his incredible late flurry against Australia on Friday, but the Aussie win in that match means that Sri Lanka can now no longer finish in the final two.
And the narrow margin of victory for Australia over Afghanistan means that Net RR is no longer a decisive factor.
So for England the equation is simple: Beat Sri Lanka and they go through at the expense of Australia.
There is still a scenario in which England can top Group 1, but it would require an enormous and extremely unlikely margin of victory, around 125 runs, to leapfrog New Zealand into top spot.
A win for Sri Lanka at the SCG would see Australia qualify in second place in the group.
Key Final Match
Sri Lanka v England – Saturday 05 November, SCG, Sydney
It all hinges on this game for England and nervous onlookers Australia.
An England win would send them through, while Australia need a favour from Sri Lanka.
Sri Lanka have looked good in their two Super 12 wins – over Ireland and Afghanistan – but haven’t beaten England in a T20I since 2014. The seven results since that victory at The Oval in London have all gone England’s way, most recently with a 26-run win in last year’s T20 World Cup.
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